By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Most likely expected winners based on recent opinion polls, exit polls where available, and analyst projections as of late April .
West Bengal: TMC (Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee) — Most polls and exit polls show TMC retaining power with a slim-to-moderate majority (projections range ~140-160+ seats, often edging BJP’s ~115-145). It’s a very close contest with high turnout and BJP gains, but TMC is still the slight favorite in most surveys.
Assam: BJP-led NDA (Himanta Biswa Sarma) — Strong consensus for a comfortable third term. Polls project NDA (mainly BJP) well above the majority mark (~80-100+ seats), with a clear vote-share lead over Congress-led opposition.
Tamil Nadu: DMK-led alliance (MK Stalin) — Narrow edge in most pre-poll surveys (often ~113-189 seats projected for DMK+ vs. AIADMK-led NDA). It’s competitive with new players like TVK as potential disruptors, but DMK is generally seen as the frontrunner to retain power.
Kerala: Tight race, slight edge to UDF (Congress-led) — Many polls show a neck-and-neck fight between ruling LDF and UDF (~UDF 60-80+ vs. LDF 50-70 range), with some giving a minor lead to UDF due to anti-incumbency. Others see LDF holding for a rare third term. Too close to call decisively, but UDF has momentum in several surveys.
These are most likely outcomes from available polling data and claims — actual results (counting expected around early May 4) can shift due to turnout, last-minute swings, or alliances. West Bengal and Kerala look closest; Assam is the clearest call for the incumbent side.
