By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: BJP is gaining ground significantly and could emerge as a much stronger opposition (potentially crossing 100–150+ seats). Some optimistic analyses for BJP point to a tighter race or even majority potential if turnout, voter consolidation, or specific issues (like infiltration or anti-incumbency) swing heavily in its favor. However, most neutral polls indicate an uphill task for BJP to dislodge TMC.
The situation remains fluid with intense campaigning, voter list revisions (SIR controversy), and ground-level violence reports. Final outcome will depend on actual voting in the two phases. For the absolute latest, check reliable sources closer to polling dates, as momentum can shift. The West Bengal Assembly elections (294 seats, majority mark 148) are yet to be held. Polling is scheduled in two phases on April 23 and April 29, 2026, with results expected on May 4, 2026.
Current Situation for BJP: BJP is the main opposition and has significantly strengthened its position compared to the 2021 assembly polls (where it won 77 seats with ~38% vote share). It is targeting a big jump, with internal goals around 170 seats (per Amit Shah’s statements) by focusing on seats where TMC won narrowly in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The party has released multiple candidate lists (including over 250 names so far), retained many sitting MLAs, and fielded high-profile candidates. Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari is a key face, and the party recently released its “Sankalp Patra” manifesto promising UCC implementation, welfare schemes for women/unemployed/farmers, and a crackdown on infiltration/corruption.
BJP is campaigning aggressively on development (“Sonar Bangla”), anti-corruption (“tolamul” critique), and change from TMC rule, while highlighting issues like law and order.
Recent surveys show a competitive but TMC-leaning race, with BJP making notable gains but generally projected to fall short of a majority on its own:
Most polls project TMC at 140–190 seats (often 155–184) and BJP at 100–150 seats (commonly 108–130), with some variation depending on the agency. Vote share estimates: TMC ~41–44%, BJP ~35–40%.
A few analyses suggest it could tighten further or even head toward a close contest/hung assembly scenario if BJP consolidates anti-TMC votes effectively (Left and Congress are marginal, projected under 20 seats combined).
Mamata Banerjee remains the preferred CM choice in most surveys (~48% support vs. ~33% for Suvendu Adhikari).
TMC had leads in more assembly segments (~192) in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, but BJP improved its footprint and is now the clear 2 force, having displaced Left/Congress as the main opposition.
TMC is still seen as the frontrunner with an edge due to incumbency, welfare schemes, and organizational strength, though its seat tally is expected to drop from 2021 (~213–220 seats).
