By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: While some political pundits predicting BJP may cross 150 seats in West Bengal but TMC is more likely to secure an overall majority in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections (294 seats, majority at 148), though the contest is very close and BJP is expected to perform strongly—especially in Phase 1 areas. Neither party is overwhelmingly dominant statewide per recent opinion polls, but trends favor TMC retaining power with a reduced margin.
Election Basics:
Phase 1 (tomorrow, April 23, 2026): 152 seats, covering much of North Bengal (Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, parts of Darjeeling/Kalimpong), Malda, Murshidabad, Birbhum, Paschim Bardhaman, Bankura, Purulia, Jhargram, and some others like Asansol, parts of Medinipur/Junglemahal.
Phase 2 (April 29): Remaining 142 seats, heavier in South Bengal/Presidency division stronger TMC areas like Kolkata, 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly.
Results and counting: May 4, 2026.
Overall Projections (Full 294 Seats):
Recent opinion polls (as of early-mid April 2026) show a tight bipolar fight between TMC (incumbent, led by Mamata Banerjee) and BJP (led by Suvendu Adhikari in opposition), with Left/Congress as minor players:
TMC often projected at 140-194 seats (most commonly 155-170 or 184-194 in optimistic polls), vote share ~41-48%.
BJP at 98-150 seats (commonly 100-130), vote share ~35-42%, gaining ground but usually short of majority.
Others (Left, Congress, etc.): Low double digits or less.
Polls like IANS-Matrize, ABP-Matrize, VoteVibe-CNN-News18, and CVoter show TMC with a slight-to-comfortable edge for a majority, but some (e.g., poll-of-polls aggregates or Axis) indicate it could be as close as 141-158 for TMC vs. 115-143 for BJP—potentially a hung house if margins shift. BJP has narrowed the gap since 2021 (when TMC won ~215 seats, BJP 77), riding on 2024 Lok Sabha momentum in some regions, but TMC has dominated most by-elections since 2021.
Key issues: Unemployment/youth aid (both promising cash transfers), women’s safety, law and order, border/tea garden/tribal concerns, and anti-incumbency vs. welfare schemes.394a52
Phase 1 Outlook (152 Seats): This phase leans more favorable to BJP relatively, as it includes many of their stronger or competitive zones from 2021/2024:
BJP strengths: North Bengal border areas (Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri—e.g., Dinhata, Sitalkuchi), Junglemahal (Bankura, Purulia, Jhargram), parts of Asansol/Bardhaman, Siliguri, Darjeeling hills, some Malda seats. BJP is defending many of its 2021 wins here (around 59 of its 77 total seats were in Phase 1 areas).
TMC strengths: Still competitive or dominant in Malda/Murshidabad (Muslim-influenced), Birbhum, industrial Asansol pockets, and scattered rural seats. TMC defends ~92 seats in this phase.
Expect BJP to win or lead in a higher proportion here ,potentially close to or above half of Phase 1 if they maximize gains, while TMC holds enough to stay ahead overall.
Key battles: Siliguri, Cooch Behar seats, Raiganj, Balurghat, Nandigram (high-profile), Bankura/Purulia tribal/Junglemahal seats.
Phase 2 (South Bengal core) is expected to heavily favor TMC, helping them cross 148 overall.
TMC likely overall majority (most polls project them winning the state), but with significant losses from 2021 and a stronger BJP opposition (possibly 110-140+ seats).
No clear “majority” winner in Phase 1 alone—it’s partial; BJP could outperform there proportionally, setting up a strong showing but probably not enough statewide without a major upset.
High stakes, possible razor-thin margins in 65-70 seats, and factors like turnout, last-minute shifts, electoral roll revisions, and alliances or lack thereof with Left/Congress) could swing it.
This is based on pre-poll surveys and trends—actual results depend on voting tomorrow and on April 29. Polls have margins of error, and West Bengal elections are often volatile with local dynamics.
