By Our Correspondent
NEW DELHI/BHUBANESWAR:India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences assesses the likely impact of El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. In general, during the El Nino event, the Indian summer monsoon is weaker than normal, and the intensity of the El Nino also decides the amount of impact on the monsoon. Since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, out of which 7 years had impacted Indian monsoon rainfall when rainfall was below normal. However, there is a stronger inverse relationship between El Niño and rainfall during the later half of the monsoon season (particularly with September rainfall).This information was given by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in Lok Sabha today.
The IMD regularly issues seasonal and monthly forecasts for rainfall and temperature. IMD issued a below-normal rainfall forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season. In its First Stage Long Range Forecast, issued on 13 April 2026, IMD predicted the seasonal rainfall to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. Subsequently, in the Second Stage Long Range Forecast, IMD revised the seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. IMD also indicated the likely development of El Niño conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season in its seasonal forecasts, thereby providing advance guidance for preparedness and planning by the concerned stakeholders.
In addition, IMD provides regular updates on monsoon rainfall at daily intervals and El Nino conditions at monthly intervals. IMD also provides rainfall at district and block levels to all stakeholders and participates in meetings conducted by PMO, MHA, MoAFW regularly and provides relevant inputs. Under crop weather watch of MoAFW every week, IMD provides past rainfall and forecast of rainfall for the next two weeks.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), MoES, based on the experimental forecast of 2026 in the seasonal to short and medium range, is working with Agriculture and dam management departments to provide the impact of rainfall and developing ENSO in agriculture and water management
Ministry of Earth Sciences has not issued any district-wise risk and impact assessment study or guidelines to the States regarding tackling the impacts of El Niño during 2026.
However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, regularly issues weather and climate forecasts, seasonal outlooks, and early warnings related to rainfall, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events, which are disseminated to all concerned Central Ministries, State Governments, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and appropriate response measures.
