By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Based on the current composition of the Odisha Legislative Assembly and recent political developments, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a realistic shot at winning 2 or possibly 3 of the 4 Rajya Sabha seats up for election in April 2026, but securing all 4 would be highly challenging and depend on significant cross-voting, defections, or strategic disruptions within the opposition—scenarios that are possible given ongoing dissent in the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) but far from guaranteed.
To break it down: Odisha sends 10 members to the Rajya Sabha in total, with terms staggered every two years. The 4 seats retiring on April 2, 2026, are currently held by Mamata Mohanta (BJP), Sujeet Kumar (BJP), Munna Khan (BJD), and Niranjan Bishi (BJD).These will be filled through indirect elections by the state’s 147 MLAs using the single transferable vote (STV) system, where the quota to win a seat is approximately 30 first-preference votes (calculated as floor(147 / 5) + 1).
The BJP, which formed the government after winning the 2024 assembly polls, controls 79 MLAs directly, plus support from 3 independents, bringing its effective strength to around 82. This gives them enough votes to comfortably secure 2 seats (like, by allocating roughly 30 votes each to two candidates, leaving a remainder of 22). Analysts project they could push for a third seat by leveraging that remainder through vote transfers in the STV process, especially if smaller parties or independents align with them.
The opposition’s position is weaker but not negligible. The BJD holds 48 MLAs (down from 51 after recent suspensions of Champua MLA Sanatan Mahakud and Patkura MLA Arvinda Mohapatra and loss in Nuapada byepolls ), which is sufficient for at least 1 seat (for example
, 30 votes for one candidate, remainder 18). The Congress has 14 MLAs, too few to win a seat independently but potentially influential as a “kingmaker” if they ally with the BJD or trade votes. A CPI(M) MLA and one more independent round out the numbers. Proportional to strength, this setup points to BJP winning 2-3 seats and BJD 1, with the fourth likely going to the side that best manages remainders and transfers.
For the BJP to sweep all 4, they’d need to effectively control around 120 votes (4 x 30), which is impossible without major opposition fractures. However, there’s precedent and current buzz suggesting this isn’t entirely out of reach: The BJD has been hit by internal dissent since its 2024 defeat, including the recent suspension of two MLAs for “anti-party activities” amid fears of cross-voting in the upcoming polls. In 2024, two of the retiring seats (held by Mohanta and Kumar) were originally BJD but flipped to BJP after the incumbents defected. Similar horse-trading or defections from disgruntled BJD MLAs could tip the balance, especially if Congress votes scatter or get poached. Odisha politics has a history of pragmatic cross-support and surprises, like the 2002 Rajya Sabha polls where 15 BJD MLAs defied party lines.
That said, the BJD under Naveen Patnaik is actively cracking down on dissent to prevent such leaks, and unity with Congress seems unlikely given their rivalries.ecdf04 Without a major split in the BJD or a backroom deal (like BJD toning down opposition in exchange for concessions), a clean BJP sweep remains a long shot—more like 10-20% odds based on current dynamics, rather than a probable outcome. If elections were held today, the safer bet is a 3-1 split in BJP’s favor.
The current assembly composition is BJP with 79 MLAs (plus support from 3 independents, for an effective strength of 82), BJD with 48, Congress with 14, CPI(M) with 1, and 2 other independents. This gives BJP enough votes to comfortably secure two seats outright (using 60 votes, with 22 surplus). Analysts and political observers suggest BJP could potentially push for a third seat if there is cross-voting from disaffected BJD or other opposition MLAs, especially amid recent BJD internal dissent, suspensions of two MLAs (Arvind Mohapatra and Sanatan Mahakud) for “anti-party activities,” and speculation about a new regional party splintering from BJD.
However, winning all four seats would require BJP to muster at least 120 votes (4 x 30), meaning they’d need around 38 additional votes beyond their effective 82—essentially poaching most of the opposition. BJD’s 48 votes are sufficient for them to claim at least one seat (with 18 surplus), and despite some internal challenges, there’s no indication of a total collapse that would hand everything to BJP. Recent political buzz points to BJP aiming for 2-3 seats, with the fourth possibly contested or going to BJD. An unprecedented mass defection could theoretically make all four possible, but that’s highly improbable based on current dynamics and no evidence supports it happening.
If BJD and Congress favours BJP through Cross Voting: In the hypothetical scenario where both the BJD (principal opposition) and Congress (along with any other smaller parties or independents) actively favor the BJP through coordinated cross-voting or defection-like support in the April 2026 Rajya Sabha elections for Odisha’s four seats, the BJP would almost certainly win all four seats.
Without any cross-voting:BJP can secure 2 seats outright (using ~60 votes, with surplus). BJD can secure 1 seat (using 30 votes, with surplus).
The fourth seat is contested, often going to the party with the most leftover votes or through strategic transfers, but analysts predict BJP eyeing 2–3, BJD 1, with the fourth uncertain.
If BJD and Congress fully favor BJP (like their MLAs mark BJP candidates as preferences 1–4, or a portion cross-vote to push BJP candidates over the quota repeatedly):
BJP would gain access to virtually the entire 147 votes (or close to it, minus any holdouts).
To win all four seats, BJP needs to get four candidates to reach 30 votes each, totaling at least 120 votes distributed strategically.
With 147 votes under control in this scenario, BJP could easily nominate four candidates and have their supporters pool votes to ensure each reaches the quota in sequence (the surplus from one candidate transfers to the next preference).
This would be unprecedented in Odisha’s recent history—similar to rare cases elsewhere where opposition collapses entirely—but mathematically feasible if the opposition parties (or a large bloc of their MLAs) deliberately support BJP nominees. Recent BJD internal dissent (e.g., suspensions of MLAs for anti-party activities) has fueled speculation about possible cross-voting or splintering, but nothing indicates a full-scale, party-directed favor to BJP. Congress, as a national opposition party, has no apparent incentive for such alignment unless extreme local compulsions arise (e.g., anti-BJD sentiment or deals).
In reality, political observers and reports (from late 2025–early 2026) see BJP comfortably taking 2–3 seats, with BJD likely holding at least 1 despite vulnerabilities—no sources suggest a realistic path to BJP sweeping all four without massive, improbable defections or opposition surrender. The scenario describe would require extraordinary political realignment, but yes, if it happened, all four seats would go to BJP.
