By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: Yes, there is a realistic possibility for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) to win the Nuapada bye-election in Odisha, though it’s shaping up as a tight three-way contest with significant challenges for all parties involved.
The bye-election, scheduled for November 11, 2025, was triggered by the death of the sitting BJD MLA, Rajendra Dholakia, on September 8, 2025,
The Nuapada assembly seat has historically been a BJD stronghold. In the 2024 Odisha assembly elections, Rajendra Dholakia (BJD) secured victory with 61,822 votes (about 38% vote share), ahead of an Independent candidate (Ghasiram Majhi with 50,941 votes), BJP’s Abhinandan Panda (44,814 votes), and Congress (15,501 votes).This gives BJD a solid base to build on, especially as the party still holds 51 MLAs in the state assembly and remains the primary opposition to the ruling BJP government formed in 2024.
For BJD, this bye-election is a “test of survival” and relevance under leader Naveen Patnaik, who has personally introduced the candidate and plans to campaign twice in Nuapada. A win would boost morale after their 2024 loss of power and signal that Patnaik’s influence persists in western Odisha.
However, the race is complicated by BJP’s ruling-party advantage (they rarely lose bye-elections) and Congress’s push for revival in a seat where their vote share has declined over time. Speculation about a tacit BJD-BJP understanding or “Delhi deal” has emerged, but there’s no concrete evidence, and public discourse on platforms like expert suggests voter skepticism toward such alliances.
A former minister and two-time MLA from Attabira (Bargarh district), Snehagini Chhuria is an experienced politician with a track record of wins in 2014 and 2019.BJD views her as a strong pick to leverage party loyalty and Patnaik’s appeal. However, she’s criticized as an “outsider” from a different region, which could alienate local voters.BJD has responded by deploying 40 star campaigners, including Patnaik and senior leaders, to counter this narrative.
BJP: Jay Dholakia – Son of the late Rajendra Dholakia, he defected from BJD to BJP, making this a family legacy play.
BJP is banking on sympathy votes and their governmental resources, with Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi leading the charge and instructions for leaders to stay in Nuapada until polling ends. Internal BJP discontent (e.g., overlooking veteran Basant Panda’s family) and perceptions of coercion in Jay’s switch could backfire.
A tribal leader who ran as an Independent in 2024 and finished second, he has a strong local base (especially among tribals) and could consolidate anti-BJP/BDJ votes. Recent reports show over 2,000 workers from BJP and BJD joining Congress in support of him, backed by a 40-member star campaigner list including national figures like Revanth Reddy and Sachin Pilot. Nuapada’s largest tribal association has endorsed him while accusing BJP and BJD of conspiracies.
As the previous holder of the seat, BJD can highlight development work under Rajendra Dholakia and Patnaik’s long rule, appealing to loyalists in a constituency with rural and tribal demographics.
Patnaik’s personal involvement and claims that his presence will disrupt rivals’ strategies could energize voters.BJD’s organizational strength in western Odisha remains intact despite the 2024 setback.
The defection of Jay Dholakia might split sympathy votes between BJP and BJD, while Congress’s rise could fragment anti-incumbent (BJP) sentiment, indirectly benefiting BJD.
Some discussions on media indicate optimism for BJD’s survival instincts, with no overwhelming anti-BJD wave evident. If turnout favors traditional BJD voters they could edge out.
Fielding Chhuria after Jay’s switch has led to internal scrambling and perceptions of weakness. Rumors of BJD-BJP collusion could erode trust.
Analysis suggests Majhi (Congress) holds an edge due to his 2024 performance and local roots, potentially surprising in a multi-cornered fight.BJP’s resources and Majhi’s CM status make them favorites in some predictions.
Limited opinion polls exist, but social media buzz shows mixed views, with some predicting a Congress upset or BJP wipeout.The outcome may hinge on turnout (around 358 polling booths with webcasting) and last-minute shifts.
Overall, BJD’s win probability is estimated around 30-40% in this unpredictable race—enough for a “yes” on possibility, but not a sure bet. Results are due November 14, 2025, and could reshape Odisha’s political landscape.
