Why BJP is likely to Win Nuapada Bye-polls? Because BJD a “Sinking Boat” with Shifting Voting Blocs while Sangha Pariwar pushed “Double-Engine Government” Narrative and Promised Development

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By Our Correspondent

BHUBANESWAR:  The campaigning for the high profile Nuapada bye polls in Odisha ending by Sunday evening while voting will be held on Tuesday.

BJP has deployed massive resources—Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi led multiple roadshows, half the cabinet (8 Ministers) campaigned, and star campaigners like Union Ministers Dharmendra Pradhan and Jual Oram were involved. They pushed the “double-engine government” narrative and promised development (e.g., college, hospital upgrades in tribal areas).

Jay Dholakia benefits from sympathy for his father’s death and the late MLA’s four-term hold on the seat.  Recent assessments (as of early November) show BJP ahead, with large crowds at rallies and defections favoring them. Deputy CM KV Singh Deo and others predicted a “huge margin” win.

BJD lost ground after Jay’s defection; Naveen Patnaik campaigned aggressively, but reports call BJD a “sinking boat” with shifting voting blocs.

Strong grassroots and Naveen’s roadshows drew support, but internal rifts (e.g., Jay’s switch) and anti-incumbency from 24 years in power hurt them.

Ghasiram Majhi of Congress has tribal appeal and finished close in 2024, but slipped to third in recent ground feedback. Some early opinion polls favored Congress, but momentum shifted.

No official exit polls exist (banned for by-elections), but local journalist assessments and campaign intensity point to BJP as the frontrunner for a comfortable win. Issues like migration, drought, and tribal welfare dominate, but ruling party machinery often prevails in bypolls. Final results on November 14 will confirm, but current indicators strongly favor BJP.

The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha was necessitated by the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025. Voting is scheduled for November 11, 2025, with counting on November 14, 2025.

This is a high-stakes triangular contest and the first electoral test for the BJP government (led by CM Mohan Majhi) since it ended BJD’s 24-year rule in 2024.

BJP: Jay Dholakia (son of the late MLA, who switched from BJD to BJP in October 2025).

BJD: Snehangini Chhuria (former MLA and prominent woman leader).

Congress: Ghasiram Majhi (finished second as an Independent in 2024 with strong tribal support; tribals form ~40% of voters).

 

 

 

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