By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Vijaypal Singh Tomar- Raghubar Das- Smriti Irani May likely Get a Wild Cards Entry into Odisha Rajya Sabha Polls, Manmohan Samal and Samir Mohanty in Race, Sujeet Kumar Re-Nomination not Deniable, With Nominations still Weeks Away, Fluidity Remains, but Arithmetic Heavily Favours BJP Dominance in 3 seats and BJD holding 1, with Congress Shut Out.
Rajya Sabha elections for 4 seats from Odisha are scheduled for March 16, 2026 (polling and counting on the same day), with terms of the sitting MPs ending on April 2, 2026.
The Election Commission announced the schedule on February 18, 2026: notification on February 26, nominations by March 5, scrutiny on March 6, and withdrawal by March 9.
Retiring MPs (by party):
BJP (2 seats): Mamata Mohanta and Sujeet Kumar ( one was recently elected in a 2024 by-poll after switching from BJD).
BJD (2 seats): Muzibulla Khan referred to as Munna Khan) and Niranjan Bishi.
Odisha has 10 Rajya Sabha seats in total; these 4 are part of the biennial cycle across 10 states (37 seats overall).
Assembly Strength and Quota Calculation (as of February 2026)
The 147-member Odisha Legislative Assembly elects these seats via proportional representation by single transferable vote (STV).
Current strength: BJP: 79 MLAs + support of all 3 Independents = 82 effective votes.
BJD: ~50 MLAs (reduced by suspensions of 2 members in recent months; effective strength around 48).
Congress: 14 MLAs.
CPI(M): 1 MLA.
Quota per seat: A candidate needs 31 first-preference votes to get elected (standard Droop quota calculation adjusted for the house; confirmed across reports).
BJP (82 votes) can comfortably secure 2 seats (62 votes required) with ~20 surplus votes left.
BJD (50 votes) can secure 1 seat (31 votes) with ~19 surplus votes.
No party can claim the 4th seat alone: Congress (14) is far short, and neither BJP nor BJD has enough surplus independently for a clean third seat without cross-voting, transfers in STV, or pre-poll understanding.
Likely Seat Distribution and Political Dynamics:This is where the real contest lies — the 4th seat will depend on post-nomination manoeuvring, vote transfers in STV, and possible cross-party support. No formal alliance exists between BJP (ruling party) and BJD (main opposition), but past instances of BJD supporting BJP candidates (e.g., Ashwini Vaishnaw show pragmatic cooperation is possible.
Most probable outcome:
BJP: 2 seats (guaranteed on strength); strong chance of 3 if it secures partial BJD support/surplus transfers or cross-voting (BJP leaders have openly hinted at fielding 3 candidates and exuded confidence in sending 3).
BJD: 1 seat (guaranteed on its numbers).
Congress: 0 seats (lacks numbers; it has announced it will field a candidate and is reaching out to BJD for support to push an Independent or joint candidate, but this is seen as a long shot).
Consensus scenario (widely discussed buzz): BJP and BJD may arrive at an understanding for the 4th seat — fielding a consensus “eminent Odia personality” (possibly as an Independent) backed by both parties’ surpluses. This avoids a messy fight and allows both to claim political credit. BJP could still net 3 overall (2 direct + share in consensus), while BJD gets its 1. Congress is largely sidelined unless BJD fully backs it (unlikely given dynamics).
Some analyses (pre- and post-EC announcement) tilt toward BJP 3 + BJD 1 outright, factoring in ruling-party leverage and historical BJD pragmatism. Others stick to BJP 2 + BJD 1 + contested/consensus 4th. Overall, BJP is poised to gain the most (net +1 or +2 from retiring seats), strengthening its national Rajya Sabha position as part of NDA gains across states.
Most Probable Candidates (Speculation as of Feb 19, 2026; Final Decisions Pending)
Candidates are not yet officially announced (BJP says parliamentary board + central leadership will decide; BJD and Congress are also finalising). Speculation is intense:
BJP (for its 2 guaranteed + possible 3rd):
Manmohan Samal (current state BJP president, ex-Rajya Sabha MP, led 2024 assembly campaign) — strong buzz but he has denied personal interest in past similar races.
Vijaypal Singh Tomar (national BJP Odisha in-charge, former Rajya Sabha MP).
Samir Mohanty (former state BJP president).
Possible renomination: Sujeet Kumar.
Wild cards: National/Odia-linked figures like Raghubar Das (former Odisha Governor & Jharkhand CM) or even Smriti Irani (for one “star” seat).
BJD (for its 1 seat):
Santrupt Misra (corporate leader, contested Cuttack LS in 2024).
Sujata Karthikeyan (former IAS officer, voluntary retirement; wife of V.K. Pandian, close to Naveen Patnaik) — seen as a loyalist pick.
Congress (for its attempted 4th seat push): Party has shortlisted 3-4 names internally (not public yet); CLP leader confirmed they will field one, banking on BJD support for an Independent. Unlikely to succeed without full BJD backing.
Consensus 4th seat (if it materialises): An “eminent Odia personality” — possibly a non-political figure, intellectual, or retired bureaucrat/judge — fielded as Independent with joint BJP-BJD backing.
Key variables that could shift the outcome: Naveen Patnaik’s (BJD supremo) final call on surpluses, any last-minute cross-voting, or if Congress-BJD talks gain traction. With nominations still weeks away, fluidity remains, but arithmetic heavily favours BJP dominance (2-3 seats) and BJD holding 1, with Congress shut out. This aligns with BJP’s post-2024 assembly majority momentum in Odisha.
