By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: Call it over confidence of Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi and BJP State President Manmohan Samal. After successfully fishing out Naveen Patnaik led BJD sympathy card in terms of Jay Dholkia , fielding him as Party candidate for Nuapada Bye Elections slated for November 11, the Saffron establishments now hoping for a landslide victory.
When BJP was main Opposition in Odisha, it faced Dhamnagar bye polls in Bhadrak and sucessfully retained the seat through sitting Odisha Higher Education and Sports Minister Suryabanshi Suraj, son of BJP veteran late Bishnu Sethi.
But analysis shows BJP’s performance in bye polls is alarming since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost multiple by-elections while in power at the central level since forming the government in 2014.
These include both Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) and State Assembly bypolls across various states.
Since the 2014 general elections, at least 27 Lok Sabha bypolls have been held (as of mid-2018 data, with more since then), and the BJP has lost the majority of those it contested.
The party lost eight of the seats it had previously held in 2014, without gaining any from the opposition.
Overall, in 23 Lok Sabha bypolls up to early 2018, the BJP won only four, continuing a streak of losses in seats it vacated after its 2014 victory.
Notable losses include Kairana (Uttar Pradesh) and Bhandara-Gondiya (Maharashtra) in May 2018, reducing the BJP’s Lok Sabha strength from 282 to 271 at that time.
By 2018, the BJP and its allies had lost nine seats in total across 27 by-elections in 15 states, retaining seven but gaining none.
More recent data up to 2024 shows the trend continued, with the BJP experiencing further setbacks in bypolls even as it maintained power through coalitions.
In September 2014, shortly after coming to power, the party was defeated in assembly bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.
In 2025, by-elections were held in June for five assembly seats across Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. The BJP won one seat (Kadi in Gujarat) but lost in the others it contested, such as Nilambur (Kerala, won by Congress), Kaliganj (West Bengal, won by TMC), Visavadar (Gujarat, won by AAP), and Ludhiana West (Punjab, won by AAP).
These results reflect mixed outcomes, but confirm ongoing losses in specific contests.
Overall, while the BJP has secured victories in some by-elections during its tenure, losses have been frequent, often attributed to local issues, opposition alliances, or anti-incumbency sentiments.
Meanwhile, Nuapada bye-election in Odisha is scheduled for polling on November 11, 2025, with vote counting set for November 14, 2025.
It’s a competitive three-way race triggered by the death of former BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, pitting BJP’s Jay Dholakia (the late MLA’s son, who defected from BJD), BJD’s Snehangini Chhuria (a former minister but seen as an outsider), and Congress’s Ghasiram Majhi (a tribal leader with strong grassroots support, who finished second as an Independent in the 2024 assembly polls).
While BJP, as the ruling party in Odisha, is mounting an aggressive campaign and leveraging the Dholakia family legacy in a bid to consolidate power, analyses indicate it’s not clearly heading for victory.
Congress’s Majhi appears to hold an edge due to his proven local appeal and past vote share (over 50,000 in 2024), amid internal BJP tensions over candidate selection and accusations of a tacit BJP-BJD understanding that could backfire. Some local sentiments and predictions favor a Congress revival here, viewing the contest as a prestige battle for all parties that could reshape Odisha’s political dynamics.
