By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: The high voltage election campaigning for Nuapada Byepolls in Odisha is ending on November 9 while voting will be conducted on November 11 and counting on November 14.
Based on the 2024 vote shares, Ruling Party advantages in bye-elections, and the strategic defection of the late MLA Raju Dholkia’s son, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is most likely to win. Jay Dholakia could consolidate 50-60% of his father’s votes plus BJP’s 24% base, potentially pushing the tally over 55-60% in a fragmented triangular contest.
BJD remains a close second if it retains core loyalists, while Congress may finish third but influence the margin. This prediction aligns with BJP’s statewide momentum and expert views on government incumbency, though local turnout (expected 70-75%) and last-minute alliances could sway it.
As the ruling party, BJP benefits from state resources and the “incumbency edge” in bye-elections. Jay Dholakia’s defection inherits his father’s ~34% vote base, potentially consolidating BJD defectors. Senior BJP leader Basanta Panda has expressed confidence in a win, citing internal strategies. Urban and non-tribal voters may lean BJP amid the 2024 “anti-BJD wave.”
Residual goodwill from Naveen Patnaik’s long rule, especially on development in this underdeveloped western Odisha district (issues like irrigation, jobs, and roads). The party mobilized its grassroots network early, criticizing BJP’s “opportunistic” candidate poaching. A win would signal BJD’s revival potential.
Ghasiram Majhi’s strong 2024 showing positions Congress as a spoiler, targeting tribal (ST-reserved seat) and rural voters disillusioned with both majors. However, its 8% in 2024 suggests limited base; it may split anti-BJP votes.
Local issues (unemployment, infrastructure neglect) dominate over national rhetoric. Analysts note a “prestige battle” for CM Mohan Charan Majhi (BJP), Patnaik (BJD), and Bhakta Charan Das (Congress). Tribal/caste equations and the 2024 BJP momentum could fragment BJD’s hold.
BJD’s Rajendra Dholakia won with 61,822 votes (33.65%), defeating Majhi (Independent, 50,941 votes or 27.73%). BJP’s Abhinandan Kumar Panda came third with 44,814 votes (24.39%), and Congress fourth with 15,502 votes (8.44%). Margin: ~10,881 votes.
BJD (or its predecessor JD) has won 7 of 10 elections since 1977 (70% strike rate), making Nuapada a traditional BJD stronghold. However, BJP’s statewide surge in 2024 (forming government with 78 seats vs. BJD’s 51) has shifted dynamics.
The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha, scheduled for voting on November 11, 2025 (with results on November 14), is a high-stakes triangular contest triggered by the death of sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025. This is the first electoral test for the BJP-led state government since it ended BJD’s 24-year rule in the 2024 Assembly elections.
The constituency, in western Odisha’s Nuapada district, has around 2.48 lakh voters, with a significant tribal population (about 40%) and issues like migration, poverty, land displacement, and unemployment dominating local concerns—though these remain sidelined in campaign rhetoric.A total of 14 candidates are in the fray, including 8 independents, but the main battle is between the BJP, BJD, and Indian National Congress (INC).
