By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Odisha is allocated 10 Rajya Sabha seats in total. Four of these seats are set to become vacant on April 2, 2026, as the terms of the current occupants expire. These seats are currently held by: Munna Khan (Biju Janata Dal – BJD), Niranjan Bishi (BJD), Mamata Mohanta (Bharatiya Janata Party – BJP), Sujeet Kumar (BJP).
Possible entry of Mines Owner-cum-Hotelier Dipti Ranjan Patnaik-Hospitality Mogul Dilip Ray can make Odisha Rajya Sabha Polls more interesting.
The 2026 Rajya Sabha elections in Odisha will test the BJP’s dominance and BJD’s resilience. The BJP’s edge in numbers and governance could lead to gains, potentially shifting the balance toward the NDA nationally. However, internal lobbying and last-minute alliances could alter the script, making the fourth seat particularly unpredictable.
The elections for these seats, which will be for fresh six-year terms starting from April 3, 2026, are expected to be held in March or early April 2026. Rajya Sabha elections are conducted via indirect voting by Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system. Odisha’s Vidhan Sabha has 147 seats, and assuming full participation, the quota for each seat (Droop quota) would be approximately 30 first-preference votes (calculated as floor(147 / 5) + 1).
This cycle comes at a time when the BJP holds power in Odisha, having formed the government after the 2024 assembly elections. The party’s first Chief Minister, Mohan Charan Majhi, leads a majority government, which positions the BJP favorably. However, the BJD, led by former CM Naveen Patnaik, remains a strong opposition force. The elections could reshape Odisha’s representation in the upper house, potentially boosting the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s overall strength in the Rajya Sabha, where 72 seats across India are up for grabs in 2026.
Current Assembly Strength and Likely Outcome:
BJP: 78 MLAs (plus potential support from 3 Independents, bringing effective strength to 81).
BJD: 51 MLAs.
Congress: 14 MLAs.
Others: 1 CPI(M) MLA, 3 Independents.
Based on the numbers:
The BJP’s 78+ votes could secure 2 seats outright (78 / 30 ≈ 2.6), with surplus votes potentially pushing for a third via transfers.
The BJD’s 51 votes could secure 1 seat (51 / 30 ≈ 1.7), with surplus for a possible second.
Congress lacks the 30-vote threshold for even one seat but could act as a kingmaker by aligning with either major party, especially for the contested fourth seat.
Analysts predict a split favoring the BJP, given its ruling status and organizational momentum post-2024. The party could win 2-3 seats, while the BJD might hold 1-2. The fourth seat is likely to be a battleground, with possibilities of cross-voting, alliances, or independents influencing outcomes. If the BJP maximizes its surplus and secures Congress support (unlikely but possible in anti-BJD scenarios), it could sweep 3 seats, reducing BJD’s influence in the upper house. Conversely, a BJD-Congress understanding could help the BJD claim 2 seats.
Overall, the NDA (led by BJP) is projected to gain ground in Odisha’s Rajya Sabha tally, aligning with broader national trends where the NDA could reach 145 seats . This would further consolidate BJP’s control over state-level decisions, including potential legislative pushes on issues like infrastructure and tribal welfare, key in Odisha.
Probable Candidates in the Race:
Candidate selection will be finalized closer to the elections, but based on political buzz, media reports, and party discussions, here are the frontrunners from major parties. These names emerge from lobbying, past electoral performance, and strategic considerations like caste balance (like tribal representation, given Odisha’s demographics) and loyalty to party leadership.
From BJP
The BJP, as the ruling party, is likely to prioritize senior leaders, former MPs, and those who can consolidate votes in key regions. State President Manmohan Samal has been vocal about the party’s ambitions, and central leadership (including PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah) will have the final say. Probables include:
Manmohan Samal: Current BJP state president and a key architect of the 2024 victory. His organizational skills make him a strong contender, though he might prefer staying in state politics.
Basant Panda: Former Lok Sabha MP from Kalahandi (2019-2024). A veteran with RSS roots, he’s seen as a safe bet for western Odisha representation.
Golak Mohapatra: Senior leader and former state general secretary. His name has surfaced in discussions for his administrative experience.
Samir Mohanty: Another senior figure, previously state president. He’s been mentioned in party circles for his role in expanding BJP’s base.
Dilip Ray: Former Union Minister (Coal) and ex-MLA from Rourkela. Despite past legal issues (coal scam conviction stayed by courts), his return to BJP in 2024 and industrial background make him a dark horse for northern Odisha.
The BJP may also consider re-nominating incumbents like Mamata Mohanta (a tribal leader who switched from BJD) or Sujeet Kumar if they seek continuity, though fresh faces are more likely for long-term grooming.
From BJD
The BJD, now in opposition, will aim to retain influence by fielding loyalists and those with mass appeal. Naveen Patnaik’s decisions will dominate, focusing on rebuilding after the 2024 setback. Probables include:
Santrupt Misra: Former corporate executive (Aditya Birla Group) who contested (and lost) the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Cuttack. His professional background and clean image position him as a technocrat candidate.1e606d
Sujata Karthikeyan: Former IAS officer and wife of VK Pandian (Naveen’s close aide). Her administrative experience and gender appeal could help consolidate women voters.ce4d24
Dipti Ranjan Patnaik (D.R. Patnaik): Mines Owner-cum-Hotelier, Dipti Ranjan Patnaik a potential contender mentioned in political analyses, possibly for his regional ties.
Other possibilities: Party insiders speculate on figures like Devi Mishra, Bobby Das, Sanjay Das Burma , Pratap Jena, or Atanu Sabyasachi Nayak (from unclear but circulating discussions), potentially as dark horses. Re-nominating veterans like Munna Khan or Niranjan Bishi is less likely, as BJD may opt for renewal. Naveen Patnaik himself is unlikely to contest, preferring to focus on state revival for 2029 assembly polls.
From Congress and Others
Congress has slim chances of winning a seat independently but could field symbolic candidates or negotiate support. Probables:
No specific names have gained traction, but senior leaders like former state chief Sarat Pattanayak might be considered if an alliance forms.
Independents or smaller parties (e.g., CPI(M)) are improbable winners but could split votes in a tight race.
