By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: BJD Supremo and former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s two rallies in Nuapada for November 11 bye polls have narrowed the gap and heightened scrutiny on BJP’s delivery, making a clean sweep less likely—they could hinder BJP by consolidating BJD’s core (20-25% vote share) and fueling anti-incumbency narratives.
However, with the bypoll just days away, BJP remains favorites due to defections, incumbency edge, and vote fragmentation. A BJD upset would signal Patnaik’s enduring pull and trouble for BJP ahead of 2029, but current dynamics suggest BJP’s win probability at 50-60%, with rallies acting more as a moral boost than a decisive hurdle.
Patnaik’s rallies have injected momentum into BJD’s campaign, potentially complicating BJP’s path to an easy victory, but their impact is mixed due to BJD’s internal woes and BJP’s consolidation.
Post-2024, BJD faces defections likes of Ex MP Amar Patnaik and Jay Dholakia to BJP on rally day, eroding its cadre. Analysts note BJD lacked a strong local candidate initially, relying on Patnaik as a “last resort.” His rallies, while visible, may not translate to votes in BJP-leaning western Odisha, where the ruling party’s welfare push and CM Mohan Charan Majhi’s local appeal hold sway.
As incumbents, BJP controls resources and has poached key figures like Jay Dholakia, securing sympathy votes. Their campaign emphasizes “development halt” under BJD as a myth, countering with ongoing schemes. Disruptions , cases like roadblocks during BJP events and security requests highlight BJD’s desperation, potentially portraying them as weak.
Congress’s strong tribal support could siphon BJD votes without hurting BJP much, as INC focuses on anti-BJP consolidation. Social media buzz predicts BJP resilience, with some calling BJD’s strategy a “backfire.”
The rallies drew large, enthusiastic crowds, signaling residual loyalty to Patnaik in a sympathy-heavy seat. He framed the contest as a “befitting reply” to BJP’s “betrayal,” resonating with locals frustrated over halted projects, unpaid Mission Shakti honorariums (8 months pending), farmer fertilizer shortages, and unfulfilled promises like 300 units of free electricity or ₹3,500 pensions. BJD workers see this as a “game changer” for retaining their base, especially among tribals and women.
Patnaik’s sharp attacks—”heroes in publicity, zero in performance”—have dominated headlines, forcing BJP on the defensive. BJP leaders countered by calling BJD’s 24-year rule a “betrayal,” but this has amplified the “stolen candidate” controversy, alienating some Dholakia sympathizers.
If BJD surges from Patnaik’s pull, it could fragment votes, denying BJP a majority. Tribal associations have also backed Congress, exposing alleged BJP-BJD collusion to target INC, which might indirectly hurt BJP by energizing opposition.
Naveen Patnaik, now BJD president and Leader of Opposition, has personally campaigned here—his first major post-defeat effort—to revive BJD’s fortunes. Reports confirm at least two key rallies/roadshows:
November 3: Public meeting in Komna block (Tarabod, Dhanmandi Ground), where he drew massive crowds and accused BJP of “stealing votes” in 2024 and now “stealing candidates” by poaching Jay Dholakia.
November 7: Roadshow from Khariar Road to Nuapada NAC, followed by a public meeting at Parkot, where he labeled BJP a “name changer” government (focused on rebranding, not delivery) and reiterated “double betrayal” (on people and BJD).
These events were marked by high energy, with Patnaik invoking his father Biju Patnaik’s legacy in creating Nuapada district and highlighting BJD-era developments like the Biju Expressway and Mission Shakti. However, they faced hurdles, including flight delays (allegedly deliberate by BJP) and security concerns raised by BJD over potential disruptions by BJP workers.
The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha is scheduled for November 11, 2025, following the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia.
This seat, in western Odisha’s tribal-dominated region, was a BJD stronghold but has become a high-stakes contest amid the BJP’s rise after their 2024 Assembly victory, which ended Naveen Patnaik’s 24-year rule.
The BJP’s candidate is Jay Dholakia (son of the late MLA, who defected from BJD), while BJD has fielded Snehangini Chhuria, a former minister with local roots. Congress’s Ghasiram Majhi is also in the fray, potentially splitting anti-BJP votes.
