By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Based on the distribution of sources—spanning media The Quint, Hindustan Times, The Wire, official EC notifications, and real-time social media sentiment—the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is most likely to win.
Ruling parties typically secure byepolls via welfare delivery and administrative leverage (e.g., BJP’s 2024 statewide sweep included nearby seats).
Jay Dholakia inherits his father’s 33%+ base, potentially flipping BJD’s 2024 voters (10-15% shift per ground reports).
Analyses show BJP pulling ahead, with BJD/Congress splitting anti-BJP votes (combined ~50-60%). Tribal support for Congress caps at 25-30%, percent.
If tribal turnout surges (e.g., >70%) or Patnaik’s rally galvanizes BJD (unlikely, given 2024 fatigue), Congress could upset (37% in latest survey). But BJP’s machinery makes a narrow win (5,000-10,000 margin) probable.
This bypoll signals BJP’s consolidation in western Odisha but won’t drastically alter statewide dynamics.
As the incumbent, BJP benefits from state resources and a “ruling party wins bypolls” trend (won 70% of recent national bypolls). Jay Dholakia’s family ties could sway 10-15% sympathy votes. Analysts note urban/non-tribal consolidation and anti-BJD backlash post-2024. BJP leaders like Manmohan Samal claim “certain victory.”
Strong among tribals (via Majhi’s local connect) and youth disillusioned with BJP’s “unfulfilled promises.” Defections (e.g., 3,000 workers in Oct) and exposures of alleged BJP-BJD deals boost morale. However, Congress’s weak 2024 statewide showing (8.44% here) limits scalability.
Post-2024 rout, BJD struggles with “surrender” accusations and Chhuria’s outsider tag. Patnaik’s Nov 3 rally in Komna aims to revive nostalgia, but low enthusiasm (15-24% in polls) suggests erosion
BJP: Jay Dholakia (son of late MLA Rajendra Dholakia, who defected from BJD). BJP leverages ruling party incumbency, welfare schemes (e.g., Subhadra Yojana, paddy MSP hike to ₹3,100), and promises like a medical college. High-profile campaigns by CM Mohan Charan Majhi and Deputy CM KV Singh Deo emphasize “development under Modi-Majhi.” BJP claims sympathy votes from the Dholakia family legacy.
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria (former minister from Bargarh, seen as an “outsider”). BJD deploys a 52-member campaign team (including ex-ministers like Niranjan Pujari) and 17 coordinators for grassroots mobilization. It banks on Naveen Patnaik’s residual appeal and anti-incumbency against BJP’s short rule, criticizing BJP for “poaching” Jay Dholakia.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi (local tribal leader, 2024 runner-up as Independent). Congress positions itself as the anti-BJP/BJD alternative, focusing on minority/tribal rights, local issues, and exposing alleged BJP-BJD “conspiracies” (e.g., tribal associations endorsing Majhi). PCC chief Bhakta Charan Das highlights recent defections (3,000+ workers from BJP/BJD/AAP).
The Nuapada Assembly bye-election in Odisha, scheduled for voting on November 11, 2025 (with counting on November 14), was triggered by the death of sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025. This is the first major electoral test for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government since it ousted the BJD after 24 years in power during the 2024 Assembly elections.
The constituency, in western Odisha’s Nuapada district, has a significant tribal population (around 40%) and rural voters focused on issues like irrigation, jobs, roads, and development neglect. It includes Nuapada and Komna blocks, with about 2.5 lakh voters across 358 polling stations.
In the 2024 general election, BJD’s Dholakia won with 33.65% (61,822 votes), followed by Independent Ghasiram Majhi (27.73%, now Congress candidate) and BJP’s Abhinandan Panda (24.39%). Historically, BJD has dominated (winning 5 of 7 elections since 1977), but the 2024 shift to BJP statewide adds intrigue.
