By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR:The Nuapada Assembly bye-election in Odisha is scheduled for November 11, 2025, following the death of the sitting MLA, Rajendra Dholakia (BJD), on September 8, 2025.
As of October 17, 2025, voting has not yet occurred, so it’s impossible to determine the exact winning margin for any candidate, including BJP’s Jay Dholkia (Rajendra Dholakia’s son, who recently switched from BJD to BJP).
The contest is expected to be a close triangular fight among BJP (Jay Dholkia), BJD (Snehagini Chhuria, a former MLA and party veteran), and Congress (Ghasiram Majhi, who ran as an independent in 2024 and finished second).
For context, in the 2024 Nuapada Assembly election, Rajendra Dholakia won for BJD with 61,822 votes (34% share) and a margin of 10,881 votes over Ghasiram Majhi. BJD has historically performed strongly in the seat, but the sympathy factor for Jay Dholkia, combined with BJP’s recent gains in Odisha, could influence the outcome.
Snehagini Chhuria does have a realistic winning chance, given BJD’s local organizational strength and past voter support in Nuapada, though the split dynamics and candidate switches add uncertainty. Results will be available after counting, likely on November 23, 2025, based on typical ECI timelines for bye-elections.
Meanwhile, Naveen Patnaik, the BJD supremo and former Chief Minister of Odisha, remains one of the state’s most respected and popular political figures, even after his party’s defeat in the 2024 assembly elections.
His personal appeal, built over 24 years in power through efficient governance, welfare schemes, and a clean image, continues to resonate strongly in rural and western Odisha districts like Nuapada.
In the context of the upcoming Nuapada bye-election on November 11, 2025—a tight three-way contest among BJD’s Snehagini Chhuria (a veteran leader and former minister), BJP’s Jay Dholkia (son of the late sitting MLA, leveraging sympathy), and Congress’s Ghasiram Majhi—Patnaik’s active campaigning would likely provide a significant boost to BJD.
Patnaik’s presence would energize BJD workers, who have faced demoralization since the 2024 loss and recent defections like Jay Dholkia’s switch to BJP.
BJD has already deployed a 52-member campaign team of senior leaders (including former ministers like Niranjan Pujari and Pranab Prakash Das) to coordinate efforts across the constituency’s blocks and urban areas, and Patnaik’s campaigning would amplify this grassroots push.
As a regional icon, Patnaik could highlight BJD’s historical dominance in Nuapada (winning the seat in 2014, 2019, and 2024) and portray Jay Dholkia’s defection as a betrayal, potentially swaying undecided voters and creating a backlash against BJP.
This “masterstroke” strategy aims to push BJP to third place, proving the enduring “Naveen wave” and signaling BJD’s resilience as the opposition.
Countering BJP’s momentum: The bye-election is a litmus test for the new BJP government under CM Mohan Charan Majhi, who has been in power for about 17 months.
Patnaik’s campaigning could exploit public discontent over issues like law and order failures, rising prices, and unfulfilled promises, helping BJD consolidate its 34-38% vote share from recent polls while splitting anti-BJD votes with Congress.
That said, the race is predicted to be close, with BJP holding a slight edge due to ruling-party advantages, Jay’s sympathy factor, and BJD’s internal challenges (including the lingering “outsider” controversy around aide VK Pandian).
Analysts expect a margin under 15,000 votes, and while Patnaik’s efforts might not guarantee a win, they could make the difference in a tight contest by rallying core supporters and turning it into a prestige battle.Notably, recent reports indicate Patnaik is already set to campaign in Nuapada for two days, underscoring BJD’s high-stakes approach.
