By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: Call it Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi and BJP State President Manmohan Samal have overpowered all powerful former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and Odisha PCC Chief Talkative Bhakta Charan Das.
Based on available exit polls and pre-poll analyses, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is positioned to win the Nuapada seat. Unofficial exit polls from observers like Madhav Nagpal (a political analyst with a track record in 2024 predictions) project a clear BJP edge, citing the sympathy wave and ruling party consolidation. Other sentiments echo this, with BJP “easily” ahead in a multi-party fight.
This aligns with broader trends: BJP’s 2024 sweep in western Odisha (winning nearby seats) and the bypoll’s role as a “bellwether” for 2029 dynamics. BJD may finish second, retaining core support, while Congress trails despite tribal outreach. A BJP win would reinforce its momentum; a surprise upset could signal opposition revival.
Factors Influencing the Outcome
Sympathy Factor: The Dholakia family’s split (son with BJP, other relatives’ ties to BJD) creates a sympathy edge for Jay Dholakia, especially in a rural constituency where personal loyalties matter. The late MLA’s wife publicly blamed BJD’s “neglect” for his health decline, aiding BJP’s narrative.
Ruling Party Momentum: As the first bypoll under BJP rule, it tests the government’s early performance. BJP’s organizational strength, including cross-border support from Chhattisgarh, contrasts with BJD’s post-2024 setbacks and Congress’s long absence from power (since 2000).
Voter Turnout and Issues: High turnout (up ~6% from 2024) suggests mobilized voters, potentially favoring BJP amid anti-BJD sentiment from the 2024 loss. Local concerns like Naxal-affected areas (with adjusted polling hours) and economic migration could sway tribals toward Congress, but sympathy appears dominant.
Allegations and Security: Both BJD and Congress accused BJP of Model Code violations (e.g., cash inducements), leading to raids. Heavy security (14 CAPF companies) ensured peaceful polling, with minor incidents like a presiding officer’s suspension for secrecy breach.
Key Candidates and Parties
BJP: Jay Dholakia – Son of the late MLA Rajendra Dholakia. The BJP’s strategy leverages a “sympathy wave” by fielding the son, combined with aggressive campaigning by senior leaders (including ministers from Odisha and neighboring Chhattisgarh). This is seen as a bid to consolidate the family’s influence and the party’s growing footprint in western Odisha.
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria – A relative of the late MLA, fielded to retain the seat BJD held since 2009 (Dholakia won by 22,620 votes in 2009 and secured it in subsequent elections). BJD deployed a 52-member campaign team, including former ministers and MLAs, focusing on its historical stronghold and anti-incumbency against the new BJP government.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi – A veteran tribal leader backed by Pradesh Congress President Bhakta Charan Das, who camped in Nuapada for weeks. Congress is positioning itself as the alternative for tribal voters disillusioned with both BJP and BJD, emphasizing local issues like migration and neglect.
Out of 19 nominations, 14 candidates remained in the fray, including independents, but the contest is primarily triangular.
The Nuapada Assembly bye-election in Odisha, held on November 11, 2025, was triggered by the death of the sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia on September 8, 2025.
This is the first electoral test for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Odisha since it came to power in June 2024 under Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi. The constituency, in western Odisha’s Nuapada district, has a significant tribal and rural voter base (over 2.53 lakh eligible voters across 358 booths), with key issues including migration, agriculture, and development neglect.
Polling saw a high turnout of approximately 81.45%, higher than the 75.44% in the 2024 general election, indicating strong voter engagement. Vote counting is scheduled for November 14, 2025. While official results are pending, early exit polls and analyses point to a likely BJP victory.
