By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Mohammed Moquim, the former MLA from Barabati-Cuttack, was expelled from the Congress party in December 2025 due to alleged anti-party activities. He has since announced plans to launch a new Odisha-centric regional political party, with a formal launch expected by the end of March 2026.
Current Status
Party details: The party is still in the planning stage. Moquim has shortlisted names like Odisha Janata Congress or Odisha Lok Congress, emphasizing that it will be secular, rooted in Congress-like ideology but focused on Odisha-specific issues, youth leadership (especially from coastal districts), and providing an alternative to the BJP, BJD, and Congress. He organized a youth convention on National Youth Day (January 12, 2026) in Bhubaneswar to mobilize supporters, and recent reports (as of January 27, 2026) indicate ongoing consultations.
Will it Impact Congress Vote Share in Odisha: Yes, Mohammad Moquim’s proposed new regional party is likely to have some impact on the Congress vote share in Odisha, but it will probably be limited and localized rather than statewide or decisive.
Why It Could Affect Congress Vote Share: Moquim’s Personal Base — He has a strong, established following in Cuttack, particularly in the Barabati-Cuttack assembly constituency (where he was MLA from 2019–2024). His daughter, Sofia Firdous, is the current Congress MLA there and recently participated in one of his youth conventions (January 2026), signaling potential family/loyalist alignment. This area has a notable Muslim population and urban youth support, where Moquim’s work has built loyalty across communities.
Mass Resignations — Around 41 of his supporters resigned from Congress en masse after his expulsion (December 2025), showing cadre defection. If these workers and their networks shift to his new outfit (tentatively named Odisha Janata Congress or Odisha Lok Congress), it could directly erode Congress’s vote pool in Cuttack and nearby coastal pockets.
Congress’s Already Fragile Position — Odisha Congress hit its lowest vote share ever (~13%) in the 2024 assembly elections. The party is weakened by internal issues, leadership criticism (which Moquim highlighted in his letter to Sonia Gandhi), and repeated electoral failures. Any split from a popular local leader risks further fragmenting the anti-BJP/anti-BJD vote, especially among secular, youth, or minority voters who might see his new party as a “Congress-like” alternative without the current leadership baggage.
Potential Impact on Odisha Politics: It is too early to predict a major impact, as the party has not yet been officially launched, and it lacks visible statewide organization, funding details, or high-profile defections from other parties. Limited statewide prospects — Odisha’s political landscape is currently dominated by the ruling BJP (which won the 2024 assembly elections) and the BJD (still a strong regional force with deep roots). Congress is already weakened. New parties in India often struggle to gain traction without major alliances, charismatic pan-state leaders, or significant resources. Reactions from leaders in BJP, BJD, and Congress have been largely skeptical or dismissive, questioning Moquim’s reach beyond his local base.
Possible local influence — Moquim has a notable base in Cuttack (where he was MLA from 2019–2024), particularly in areas with significant Muslim and youth populations. His daughter, Sofia Firdous, is the sitting Congress MLA from Barabati-Cuttack, and recent mass resignations of about 41 of his supporters from Congress show some loyal cadre. This could create minor vote splits or shifts in Cuttack and nearby coastal pockets, especially if the party appeals to disaffected youth or minority voters.
Why the Impact Is Likely Limited: No Statewide Reach — Moquim’s influence is largely confined to Cuttack and perhaps some coastal districts. Odisha politics remains dominated by BJP (ruling) and BJD (strong regional player with deep roots). New parties rarely break through without major alliances, funding, or defections from bigger names—none of which are evident yet.
Congress Leadership’s Response — OPCC President Bhakta Charan Das publicly stated that Moquim’s new party “will not affect Congress” and that anyone can form a party if dissatisfied. Other reactions from BJP, BJD, and Congress leaders have been dismissive, viewing it as a marginal move.
Timing and Scale — The party is still in planning (formal launch expected by end of March 2026). It has generated local buzz via youth events (for example January 12, 2026 convention), but no signs of broad defections or organizational buildup across Odisha’s 147 constituencies.
Historical Precedent — Splits from Congress in Odisha (or similar states) often result in vote erosion in specific pockets but don’t significantly alter the overall vote share statewide, especially when the parent party is already marginal.
Overall assessment — While the move is generating local media buzz and could draw some attention from dissatisfied voters, most current reports and reactions suggest it is unlikely to significantly reshape Odisha politics at the state level. Many new regional outfits fizzle out or remain marginal without broader momentum.
The situation could evolve if more leaders join or if the party gains unexpected traction after launch. For now, expect limited or marginal impact rather than a game-changer. If you’re following this closely (especially in Cuttack), keep an eye on developments in March 2026.
In summary, expect a noticeable dent in Congress’s vote share in Cuttack/Barabati-Cuttack and possibly a few adjacent areas—potentially costing them 1–3% locally or affecting 1–2 seats in future polls. Statewide, however, Congress’s vote share (already low) is more threatened by BJP’s rise and BJD’s resilience than by this new outfit. If more leaders (especially from Congress or disaffected BJD) join Moquim post-launch, the impact could grow—but as of now (late January 2026), it’s shaping up as a local headache for Congress rather than a major statewide shift. This could feel more relevant locally—watch for any updates on defections or Sofia Firdous’s stance in the coming weeks.
