By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Congress could win by 4-20% margins, fueled by defections and tribal consolidation in Nuapada byepolls . Analysts call it a “litmus test” for BJP’s first-year governance and a potential Congress revival in Odisha. Based on current momentum, Congress (INC) Ghasiram Majhi is the frontrunner to win the Nuapada by-election.
Its strong local candidate, defections from rivals, and anti-BJP wave position it to capitalize on vote splits between BJP and BJD. A Congress victory would signal a broader resurgence, challenging BJP’s dominance and weakening BJD further ahead of 2029. However, by-polls can be unpredictable—final results depend on turnout and last-minute shifts.
Eight Independents and minor parties including Samajwadi Party are also contesting, but they are unlikely to split votes significantly. With 253,624 electors (mostly rural/tribal), turnout could exceed 70%. Tribals and regional identity are key; Congress’s local connect gives it an edge here.
Anti-BJP sentiment over law-and-order lapses (e.g., recent gang-rape cases) and development delays is growing, while BJD’s post-2024 decline (now a weaker opposition) has eroded its base.
BJP and BJD are accused of a “secret understanding” (e.g., viral videos chanting “Jai BJP, Jai Naveen”), alienating voters. Congress has intensified door-to-door outreach, with leaders like Bhakta Charan Das (state chief) and AICC in-charge Ajay Kumar Lallu leading rallies. Security is heightened in Maoist-affected areas.
Jay Dholakia, adopted son of the late MLA Rajendra Dholakia. He switched from BJD to BJP in October 2025, aiming to leverage sympathy votes and the party’s central/state power. BJP is campaigning aggressively, dividing the constituency into zones led by ministers, and relying on its affiliates like the Sangh Parivar. However, allegations of secret BJD backing and misuse of power (e.g., a BJP MLA’s PSO firing incident) have hurt its image.
Snehangini Chhuria, a party loyalist. BJD is mobilizing its grassroots network, emphasizing its past development record under Naveen Patnaik. Patnaik himself campaigned, declaring “Nuapada will win” (implying a BJD victory). But the party faces backlash for fielding an “outsider” candidate and perceived softness toward BJP.
Ghasiram Majhi, a local tribal leader and former Independent who polled ~30% in 2024. Backed by CPI(M) and NCP(SP), Congress is positioning itself as the anti-BJP alternative, focusing on local issues like jobs, irrigation, and roads. It has gained momentum through mass defections (e.g., over 2,000 BJP-BJD workers, AAP VP, and sarpanches joining) and support from the largest tribal association, which exposed alleged BJP-BJD conspiracies against Majhi.
The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha, scheduled for voting on November 11, 2025, and counting on November 14, 2025, was triggered by the death of sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025. This tribal-dominated constituency (about 40% tribal voters) has historically been a BJD stronghold, with the party winning 5 of 7 elections since 1977.
In the 2024 general elections, Dholakia secured 52% of the vote share, defeating Independent Ghasiram Majhi by over 10,000 votes. However, the 2025 by-poll is shaping up as a high-stakes triangular contest amid shifting alliances, defections, and anti-incumbency against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government.
