By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: The Nuapada by-election in Odisha, scheduled for November 11, 2025, serves as a key litmus test for the Mohan Charan Majhi-led BJP government’s performance after about 17 months in power since June 2024.
The Majhi government’s solid first-year track record—emphasizing development, anti-corruption, and promise fulfillment—positions BJP favorably for a win, potentially by a close margin, as it aligns with voter expectations in a region seeking progress under the new regime.
The seat fell vacant following the death of BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, turning the contest into a high-stakes three-way battle among BJP’s Jay Dholakia (the late MLA’s son, who recently defected from BJD), BJD’s Snehangini Chhuria (a former minister), and Congress’s Ghasiram Majhi (a senior tribal leader).
Top leaders from all parties, including CM Majhi himself leading rallies, are campaigning intensely, highlighting its importance as a referendum on the BJP’s governance in western Odisha.
The BJP government has received mixed but largely positive reviews in its first year, focusing on fulfilling electoral promises, reducing bureaucratic overreach, and prioritizing development.
Progress on key pledges like increasing minimum support prices for paddy, launching women empowerment schemes (e.g., Subhadra Yojana), and anti-corruption drives, including arrests of officials and even some BJP leaders.
Majhi’s administration is described as bold and action-oriented, contrasting with the previous BJD regime’s perceived bureaucratic dominance. It has emphasized people-centric rule, with Majhi ranked 8th among India’s best chief ministers in a 2025 survey.
The government plans to release a one-year report card and conduct village tours to highlight achievements, reaching about 1 crore families.
Critics note hurdles like incomplete projects, internal party issues, and opposition allegations of unfulfilled commitments in tribal and rural areas. Overall, assessments suggest a promising start with room for improvement.
The government’s performance is being leveraged as a campaign plank, with Majhi pledging personal responsibility for Nuapada’s development and claiming benefits from a “double-engine” (state-center alignment) setup.
Jay Dholakia’s local legacy and defection from BJD could consolidate votes, especially among sympathizers of his father.
Some analyses predict a BJP win by over 50,000 votes, viewing it as a prestige battle where the party’s organizational strength and recent governance wins give it an edge.
For BJD, it’s a survival test post their 2024 defeat, but Chhuria’s “outsider” tag and internal setbacks (like Dholakia’s switch) weaken their position.
Congress sees it as a revival opportunity, with Ghasiram Majhi gaining support from local tribal associations amid allegations of BJP-BJD collusion to defame him.Recent defections to Congress and claims of BJD-BJP “hand-in-hand” tactics have energized the opposition narrative.
Nuapada has a significant tribal population, where caste equations and anti-incumbency against the previous BJD regime could play out. BJP warns its leaders to stay vigilant, indicating internal concerns despite a comfortable assembly majority (78/147 seats), meaning a loss wouldn’t topple the government but could signal voter discontent.
However, tribal voter shifts toward Congress, allegations of BJP-BJD backroom deals, and the three-way split could make it a tight race, with some predictions favoring a Congress upset. Ultimately, while the performance provides a strong foundation, local factors like candidate appeal and opposition unity will be decisive—the outcome could redraw Odisha’s political map.
