By Our Correspondent
NUAPADA/BHUBANESWAR: Voting for the high voltage byepolls to Nuapada Assembly seat in Odisha bordering BJP ruled Chhattisgarh will be held on Tuesday while counting on November 14, but political atmosphere in this eastern State getting excited amid a close fight between Ruling BJP and Opposition Congress and BJD.
Based on available reports and political dynamics, the BJP is the most likely party to win the Nuapada by-election, primarily due to the sympathy factor for Jay Dholakia, ruling-party edge, and superior campaign mobilization. However, a split in anti-BJP votes or high turnout among tribals could make it closer than expected. Final outcome depends on tomorrow’s polling (~2.53 lakh voters across 358 booths).
Factors Favoring BJP as Likely Winner: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is widely seen as the frontrunner for several reasons:
Sympathy wave: Jay Dholakia, contesting on a BJP ticket shortly after his father’s death and defection from BJD, is expected to benefit from voter sympathy tied to the late MLA’s legacy.
Ruling Party Advantage: By-elections in India often favor the incumbent government due to access to resources, administrative machinery, and voter desire for continuity with the state government. This is Odisha’s first bypoll under BJP rule, and analysts describe it as a “litmus test” where a loss could dent CM Mohan Majhi’s momentum.
Massive Campaigning: Odisha CM Mohan Majhi, Chhattisgarh CM Vishnu Deo Sai, Union ministers (e.g., Jual Oram, Dharmendra Pradhan), deputy CMs, and over 100 MLAs/MPs held rallies, roadshows (a first for the seat), and targeted tribal outreach. The BJP deployed star campaigners aggressively.
Shifting Vote Blocs: Reports note voting patterns moving toward BJP, with the party inducting the late MLA’s son seen as a strategic masterstroke.
Key Candidates
BJP: Jay Dholakia (son of the late Rajendra Dholakia).
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria (former minister and women’s wing president).
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi (tribal leader who was runner-up as an Independent in 2024).
11 other candidates (mostly Independents), totaling 14 in the fray.
2024 Election Context :
BJD’s Rajendra Dholakia won with ~61,822 votes (34%). Ghasiram Majhi (Independent) second with ~50,941 votes (28%). BJP third with ~44,814 votes (24%).
Challenges for Opponents:
BJD: Despite Naveen Patnaik campaigning twice (despite health issues), the party lost its traditional hold when the Dholakia family switched sides. It remains competitive in pockets but faces anti-incumbency echoes from its 2024 statewide defeat.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi has strong tribal support (tribals ~40% of voters) and grassroots connect, but the party finished a distant fourth in 2024 and lacks the organizational firepower of BJP/BJD.
Other factors: Issues like migration, drought, and development dominate, but campaigning focused more on personalities than solutions. “Silent voters” resisting pressure could cause surprises.
The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha is scheduled for November 11, 2025, with voting tomorrow and counting on November 14, 2025. No results are available yet, as polling has not occurred.
The by-election was necessitated by the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025.711744 This is the first electoral test for the BJP government in Odisha since it came to power in 2024, making it a high-stakes prestige battle.
