By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Based on current analyses, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the frontrunner to win the Nuapada by-election. Its incumbency, strategic candidate selection (family continuity), and momentum from the 2024 victory give it a clear edge in this high-stakes triangular fight.
BJD remains competitive due to legacy but faces bloc shifts, while Congress may cap gains at 15-20% vote share. A BJP victory would affirm its 2024 gains; a loss could signal rural vulnerabilities.
Tribal support (40% electorate) is fluid—Congress has traditional pull, but BJP is encroaching. Mud-slinging between BJP and BJD dominates, with Independents fragmenting votes.
Incumbency as the ruling party at the state (Odisha), central (India), and neighboring state (Chhattisgarh) levels, BJP giving it organizational edge and resources.
Jay Dholakia inherits his father’s grassroots network in 12 gram panchayats; BJP is covering the rest via ministers and RSS affiliates. Party leaders like Basanta Panda and Manmohan Samal express strong confidence, with internal meetings assuring a win. Urban non-tribal and development-focused voters lean BJP post-2024 shift.
Nuapada was a BJD bastion, with Dholakia’s four-time wins (three on BJD ticket). Chhuria leverages this plus the party’s development record. Criticism of BJP’s “opportunistic” poaching of Dholakia’s son could sway loyalists. However, shifting voting blocs (e.g., some tribals moving to BJP) and BJD’s post-2024 decline weaken it.
Positioning as an “alternative” to BJP-BJD “similarities,” targeting tribals (via Majhi) and neglected rural voters. State chief Bhakta Charan Das is campaigning aggressively. Could split anti-BJP votes, but its 2024 third-place finish (15,000 votes) limits it to a distant contender.
The Nuapada Assembly constituency in Odisha is holding a by-election on November 11, 2025, following the death of sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia on September 8, 2025.
This is the first electoral test for the BJP-led government in Odisha since it came to power in June 2024 after ending the BJD’s 24-year rule. The seat, which has around 2.5 lakh voters (40% tribal), saw Dholakia win with 52% of votes in the 2024 general elections. Voting will occur across 358 polling stations, with counting on November 14, 2025.
The contest is triangular, with 14 candidates (including 8 Independents), but the main battle is between:
BJP: Jay Dholakia (son of the late MLA, who switched from BJD to BJP on October 11, 2025).
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria (former minister from nearby Bargarh, relying on residual goodwill from Naveen Patnaik’s era).
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi (tribal leader who polled ~50,000 votes as an Independent in 2024, now aiming to consolidate anti-BJP/BJD votes).
