By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Based on the current political landscape in Odisha as of January 2026, with 4 Rajya Sabha seats up for election and the Odisha Legislative Assembly’s strength at 147 MLAs in which BJP effectively controlling 82 including 3 independents, BJD came down from 51 to 48 after Nuapada Bye polls loss and suspension of Patkura and Champua MLAs Arvinda Mohapatra and Sanatan Mahakud, Congress 14, CPM 1, the quota to win each seat under the single transferable vote system is effectively 30 MLA votes.
In the hypothetical scenario where BJP secures 2 seats and BJD 1 seat outright based on their core strengths, the 4th seat becomes a tight contest reliant on surplus votes, potential cross-voting, and alliances.
BJP is actively positioning to claim this seat by fielding a third candidate, leveraging its ruling status and past instances of BJD allowing “conscience votes” in its favor (like during national issues like the Waqf Bill).
Political analysts and recent developments indicate a high likelihood of BJP emerging victorious for the 4th seat through strategic management, potentially with tacit BJD support, pushing their total to 3 seats.
As for a dark horse, senior BJP leader and former Union Minister Dilip Ray stands out as the most likely to emerge in that role. He has a history of winning Rajya Sabha seats (1996-2002 and 2002-2008), including a dramatic 2002 victory as an independent with cross-voting from around 20 BJD MLAs despite party lines.
Recent meetings between Ray and Odisha Law Minister Prithiviraj Harichandan have fueled speculation, and he’s viewed as capable of mopping up residual votes from BJP, BJD, and even possibly Congress due to his strong cross-party connections.
While Congress has expressed intent to field a candidate, they lack the numbers without major external backing, making Ray’s profile as an experienced, networked figure the prime unexpected contender if the contest intensifies.
