By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) loses the Nuapada by-election in Odisha, scheduled for November 11, 2025 (with results on November 14), the immediate numerical impact on the state assembly would be minimal, as BJP does not currently hold the seat—it was won by the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in the 2024 elections and became vacant after the death of MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September .
BJP currently commands a comfortable majority with 78 seats in the 147-member Odisha Legislative Assembly, well above the 74 needed for a simple majority, so losing this bypoll wouldn’t threaten the stability of Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi’s government.
However, the symbolic and broader political ramifications could be significant, given the high-stakes nature of this three-way contest among BJP, BJD, and Congress:
BJP has fielded Jay Dholakia, the son of the late BJD MLA, in an apparent bid to capitalize on family sympathy and local influence while poaching from BJD’s base. A loss would signal rejection of this tactic, highlighting potential voter dissatisfaction with BJP’s governance just months into their first-ever rule in Odisha.
It could expose weaknesses in western Odisha, a region where BJP performed strongly in 2024, and fuel criticism over issues like local development, tribal concerns, or defections. This might embolden internal dissent within BJP or slow their momentum in consolidating power.
Boost for BJD’s revival: As the main opposition with 51 seats pre-vacancy, BJD (led by Naveen Patnaik) would likely be the biggest beneficiary if they win back the seat with candidate Snehangini Chhuria.
It would reaffirm their stronghold in Nuapada—a constituency they’ve held in recent cycles—and demonstrate resilience after their 2024 defeat, potentially energizing party workers and stemming further defections to BJP. Patnaik’s active campaigning could position BJD as a viable alternative, setting the stage for stronger opposition in future polls.
If Congress candidate Ghasi Ram Majhi (a strong local contender who ran as an independent in 2024) pulls off an upset, it would mark a rare win for the party, which holds only 14 seats statewide. This could signal a revival in Odisha, where Congress has been marginalized, and draw national attention, possibly attracting more resources or alliances ahead of 2029 elections.
Overall, a BJP defeat in this prestige battle could shift the narrative toward a more competitive political landscape in Odisha, with opposition parties gaining morale and media traction. It might prompt BJP to reassess strategies, like intensifying welfare schemes or addressing regional grievances, while invigorating anti-BJP sentiment. That said, without broader trends like multiple bypolls or floor tests, the government’s day-to-day functioning would remain unaffected.
