By Anurjay Dhal
BHUBANESWAR: The by-election in Nuapada Assembly constituency, Odisha, was necessitated by the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia on September 8, 2025.With voter turnout historically low in Nuapada (around 70-75%), favoring organized parties like BJP and BJD.
Rajendra had won the seat in the 2024 Odisha Assembly elections with around 61,800 votes (approximately 38% vote share), defeating Independent candidate Ghasiram Majhi by about 10,000 votes. BJP’s Abhinandan Panda came third with nearly 45,000 votes (around 28% share), while BJD’s vote share dropped by 4% from 2019.c50095 Historically, Nuapada has been a BJD stronghold, with Rajendra winning four consecutive terms since 2009.
The election is set for November 11, 2025, with results likely a day or two later. This by-poll is viewed as a litmus test for the new BJP government under Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, who completes 17 months in office on November 12.
Ruling parties in Odisha have traditionally performed well in by-elections, as seen in 2020 when BJD won both Balasore and Tirtol seats despite challenges like COVID-19 restrictions.
Candidates and Recent Developments:
BJP: Jay Dholakia – Son of the late Rajendra Dholakia, Jay was initially eyed as BJD’s candidate but switched to BJP on October 11, 2025, in a major setback for BJD. BJP officially named him their candidate on October 15, 2025. His entry brings local credibility and potential sympathy votes tied to his father’s legacy, but it risks backlash for being seen as opportunistic. Some speculate a behind-the-scenes deal between BJD and BJP, with VK Pandian allegedly playing a role in facilitating the switch.
BJD: Likely Manoj Mishra – After Jay’s defection, BJD is expected to field senior leader Manoj Mishra.Naveen Patnaik summoned key aspirants to his residence for final discussions on October 15. The party is relying on its organizational strength and Naveen’s enduring popularity in western Odisha.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi – A strong local contender, Majhi filed his nomination on October 15 in the presence of OPCC President Bhakta Charan Das.He secured over 50,000 votes as an Independent in 2024 and finished second as Congress candidate in 2019, making him a potential spoiler or winner in a three-way fight.
Role of Naveen Patnaik and VK Pandian : Naveen Patnaik, BJD supremo and former CM, retains significant influence in Odisha despite the party’s 2024 defeat. His “combine magic” with VK Pandian – Naveen’s close aide and a polarizing figure – helped BJD dominate for over two decades through efficient governance and welfare schemes. However, Pandian quit active politics after 2024’s loss, blaming himself for the defeat, though rumors persist of his behind-the-scenes involvement.
In Nuapada, their influence could help BJD by mobilizing cadre and leveraging Naveen’s personal appeal in rural areas. But anti-incumbency from BJD’s long rule, Pandian’s outsider image (he’s from Tamil Nadu), and the 2024 rout might limit this “magic.” Jay’s defection has exposed BJD splits, weakening their hold.If Naveen campaigns aggressively (virtually or in-person), it could consolidate BJD’s base, but analysts note sympathy alone isn’t enough – as seen in past bye-polls.
Factors Influencing the Outcome:
Favoring BJP: Ruling party advantage in resource allocation and administration; Jay’s local legacy and sympathy wave; potential consolidation of anti-BJD votes. BJP’s 2024 vote share (28%) plus Jay’s pull from his father’s 38% could push them over 40%.463ba7 Internal ripples exist, like integrating Jay with local leaders like Basant Panda’s faction.
Favoring BJD: Stronghold status; Naveen’s brand; potential backlash against Jay’s switch. But defection has demoralized cadre, and vote split could hurt.
Congress Wildcard: Ghasiram’s consistent performance (second in 2019 and 2024) could attract anti-BJP/BJD votes, especially if turnout favors independents/minorities. Ground sentiment shows possible Congress resurgence.
Other Dynamics: No major polls available, but on-ground buzz indicates a close race. Caste equations (tribal and OBC dominance) favor locals like Ghasiram (tribal leader). BJP’s state power might sway fence-sitters.
Prediction: BJP Likely to Win, But It’s Close : Based on available analysis, BJP holds a slight edge due to ruling party momentum, Jay Dholakia’s sympathy factor, and BJD’s internal disarray post-defection.Naveen-Pandian “magic” may help BJD retain core votes but won’t fully overcome the legacy vote split and BJP’s administrative leverage. A BJP win would affirm CM Majhi’s leadership; a BJD upset would signal resilience. Congress could finish second if anti-ruling sentiment surges. Expect a margin under 15,000 votes – BJP 38-42%, BJD 35-38%, Congress 25-30%.
