By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: Battle Nuapada : BJP is Marginally Favored to Win, with a Projected 35-38 Percent Vote Share in a Fragmented Contest, Gives Ruling Party a Slight Edge over Congress 32-35 Percent and BJD 25-28% Percent.
Pre-poll surveys and ground reports show a razor-thin race, with no outright favorite as of November 5, campaigning ends November 9.
Based on the latest trends, the BJP is marginally favored to win, with a projected 35-38% vote share in a fragmented contest. Jay Dholakia’s family legacy, combined with ruling party machinery and welfare outreach, gives it a slight edge over Congress (32-35%) and BJD (25-28%).
However, this is a knife-edge race—tribal turnout or a sympathy wave for Majhi could flip it to Congress, while Patnaik’s pull might revive BJD. Bypolls often favor incumbents (ruling parties win ~70% historically), but Nuapada’s tribal dynamics make an upset plausible. Watch for last-minute shifts before November 9.
As BJP an Incumbency and Dholakia name recall could consolidate 25-30% base votes, per BJP leaders like Basanta Panda. A win would affirm the 2024 shift as permanent.
Congress’s Momentum: Majhi’s 2024 near-miss and recent joins AAP VP, sarpanches) position it as the anti-BJP alternative. Analysts see it capitalizing on BJD’s decline (from 51% statewide in 2019 to 40% in 2024).
Former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s November 3 rally in Komna block may stem losses, but the party’s post-2024 disarray and “soft Hindutva” shift alienate core voters.
BJP benefits from being in power at the state and central levels, enabling aggressive promotion of schemes like the Subhadra Yojana (women’s financial aid), paddy MSP hike to ₹3,100, and promises of a local medical college. However, local anti-incumbency over issues like irrigation shortages, migration, and tribal welfare could hurt.
Jay Dholakia’s switch splits the late MLA’s voter base—personal loyalty may favor him, but perceived opportunism could alienate BJD loyalists.
Congress’s Majhi has strong grassroots ties among tribals and SCs, bolstered by endorsements from local associations. BJD retains some residual goodwill from its long rule, while BJP targets non-tribals and urban pockets.
All parties have mobilized star campaigners—Naveen Patnaik for BJD, CM Mohan Charan Majhi and Deputy CM KV Singh Deo for BJP, and PCC chief Bhakta Charan Das for Congress. Recent defections ., 3,000+ BJP-BJD workers to Congress and conspiracy allegations (tribal groups accusing BJP-BJD of smear campaigns) add volatility.
High turnout (~70-75% expected) among tribals could favor Congress. Core issues: water scarcity, unemployment, and unfulfilled promises, with minimal focus on national debates.
The Nuapada Assembly by-election in Odisha, scheduled for voting on November 11, 2025 (with results on November 14), is a high-stakes triangular contest triggered by the death of four-time BJD MLA and former minister Rajendra Dholakia in September 2025. This is the first major electoral test for the BJP-led government in Odisha since it ousted the BJD after 24 years of rule in the 2024 Assembly elections.
The constituency, in the tribal-heavy western Odisha district of Nuapada (with ~40% tribal voters), features a diverse electorate including tribals, Scheduled Castes, and non-tribals. In the 2024 general election, BJD’s Dholakia won with 33.65% (61,822 votes), followed by Independent (now Congress) Ghasiram Majhi at 27.73% (50,941 votes), and BJP’s Abhinandan Panda at 24.39% (44,814 votes).
BJP: Jay Dholakia – Son of the late MLA, who defected from BJD to BJP in October 2025, leveraging family legacy and ruling party resources.
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria – A former minister from neighboring Bargarh, positioned as an outsider but backed by party machinery and Naveen Patnaik’s campaign.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi – A local tribal leader who nearly won in 2024 as an Independent; focusing on anti-incumbency, tribal rights, and development neglect.
