By Our Correspondent
BHUBANESWAR: The Nuapada Assembly constituency in western Odisha is gearing up for a high-stakes bye-election on November 11, 2025, with vote counting scheduled for November 14, 2025.
Congress looking most likely winner, with 55% chance of win, because it emerging as the frontrunner per latest ground assessments and social media trends. The party has capitalized on defections, tribal endorsements, and anti-establishment anger—framing the poll as a “BJP-BJD conspiracy” vs. genuine revival. With 2024’s close 2nd-place finish as a base, Congress could flip 20-25% of BJD votes, scripting a surprise upset. This aligns with national patterns where Congress gains in non-polarized rural/tribal seats.
BJP most likely runner-up, with 30 % chance of win due to as the incumbent, BJP benefits from state machinery and the Dholakia switch, potentially consolidating anti-BJD votes. However, bye-elections often punish rulers if local grievances (e.g., tribal development lags) dominate. Reports suggest they’re better placed than BJD but vulnerable to a split opposition.
BJD least likely, having 15% chance of win as the party’s bastion status is eroding fast post-2024 defeat. Defections and perceptions of tacit BJP support (e.g., no aggressive opposition in Assembly) have alienated core voters. A win here would require massive Patnaik charisma, but current sentiment points to irrelevance
Congress is poised to win, potentially by a margin of 10,000-15,000 votes, signaling a broader resurgence in Odisha’s tribal belts. This could pressure BJP ahead of 2029 and weaken BJD further. Watch for last-minute Naveen Patnaik rallies or tribal turnout swings.
The Nuapada Assembly constituency in western Odisha is gearing up for a high-stakes bye-election on November 11, 2025, with vote counting scheduled for November 14, 2025. This poll was triggered by the death of sitting Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA and former minister Rajendra Dholakia on September 8, 2025.
Nuapada, a Scheduled Tribes (ST)-reserved seat bordering Chhattisgarh, has a significant tribal electorate (around 40-50% of voters) and a total of about 2.54 lakh electors. It’s a traditional BJD stronghold—Dholakia won it four times since 2000—but the 2024 Assembly elections saw a dramatic shift when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ended BJD’s 24-year rule in Odisha, forming the first BJP government under Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi.
BJP: Fielding Jay Dholakia (son of the late Rajendra Dholakia, who defected from BJD). This move is seen as a strategic poach to leverage family legacy and anti-incumbency against BJD.
BJD: Snehangini Chhuria, a former minister and experienced leader from western Odisha, backed by a 52-member campaign team including heavyweights like Naveen Patnaik.
Congress: Ghasiram Majhi, a veteran tribal leader and former candidate who rejoined the party. The Indian National Congress (INC) is positioning itself as the anti-BJP alternative, focusing on tribal issues.
This bye-election is a litmus test: A BJP win would consolidate the ruling government’s momentum; a BJD victory could signal opposition revival; a Congress upset might mark a national comeback in Odisha, where the party holds just 14 Assembly seats post-2024.
